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Aszune-Horde is seriously struggling for numbers. The population is dwindling to next to nothing. I personally don't think MoP will make a huge difference. Sure, a spike in numbers to begin with but they'll dwindle again as people move on.
Not that I'm holding out any hope that Blizz might address the issue but I guess anything is worth a shot. Either free character transfers on to Aszune or a server merge would be nice.
I play MMORPGs to play with other people and am seriously considering giving up my subscription because there's just not the interaction there once was on this server.
Even on alliance it's not as busy as it was a few months ago. I tend to blame a few different things:
In the end, some of the people that are missing/slacking now will be back in Mists of Pandaria or shortly before, some of them will stick around longer than others as you mentioned already.
Personally, I'm hoping for an influx of newer players with Mists of Pandaria to the server in general.
Chaika, you're analysis is spot on.
You won't see numbers grow again until September.
And we're all gonna have a big bad showdown for MoP, and then WoW as a whole will die out.
At least, after 7 years of having been around WoW... I kinda want it to end. just cause... 7 f'ing years. But let's all get back in for MoP, have a ball, and then we (Blizzard included), can call it a day, and lets leave Activision with the bill.
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