Legendary drop rate!

General Discussion
Because I've seen several posts about no legendary on the first screen alone I though this is important to say.

You have a small chance of legendary in 1 pack, your chance increases as you open more of that type of pack.

For example (not accurate numbers)
1% chance ->2nd pack of same type -> 2% chance.
Etc until you get one and it resets.

At 40 packs if you have not gotten a legendary you are GURENTEED one.
So anyone complaining about only 1 legendary you just got unlucky. 1 legendary per 20 is the average.

I also believe epics follow the same rule but for every 10. Could be wrong though.

Tl:dr 1 legendary per 40 packs is perfectly feesble
it is actualy 1 legendary in 18 to 20 packs
02/12/2016 11:06Posted by Ellendras
it is actualy 1 legendary in 18 to 20 packs


My mistake I'll correct it. The 40 packs was the main point anyway :)
The average is 1 in 19 practically, but we like to say 1 in 20 or 5%. The minimum is 1 in 40, as you explained. (In fact, without the pity timer, the chance to NOT get a legendary after 40 packs would be 12%.)

http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3z7jyh/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_and_the_best_strategy/
Around 20 is indeed what you should expect.
After hearing about the pity timer, I decided to write down how long it took (noting that different sets have their own timer).

My results in no particular order:
23, 22, 19, 20, 28, 14, 18 = 20.57 average
Well, I did not buy anything, I just made all 3 quests and got 6 packs for it. In those 6 packs, I opened one golden legendary and one golden epic. I have been exceptionally lucky, I guess. :-)

Btw, this whole affair here on forum inspired me to compose joke. It is pretty stupid and I am sure, I will got minuses for it, but I can not help myself, because for me, that joke really fits to current situation. :-p
---
Football match ends, team is going to showers, while trainer stays in cloakroom to prepare short post-match analyse. Then suddenly trainer hears excited discussion in shower room.
"I have it this big!"
"I have it even bigger!"
"Look at mine guys, I have it even bigger than you both!!"
Trainer enters showers and asks: "What is going on here?"
"We are just discussing how big misfortune we have in HS while opening packs."
02/12/2016 11:01Posted by Zenai10
You have a small chance of legendary in 1 pack, your chance increases as you open more of that type of pack.

For example (not accurate numbers)
1% chance ->2nd pack of same type -> 2% chance.
Etc until you get one and it resets.
Where did you get the information that the drop probability for a legendary increases with every pack until you get one? As opposed to staying at the same probability but just giving you a legendary on your 40th pack if you didn't get one before.
02/12/2016 11:41Posted by khisana
Where did you get the information that the drop probability for a legendary increases with every pack until you get one? As opposed to staying at the same probability but just giving you a legendary on your 40th pack if you didn't get one before.


02/12/2016 11:17Posted by NYARLATHOTEP
http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3z7jyh/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_and_the_best_strategy/
I just got one epic and no legendaries in 19 packs.. I guess RNG doesn't like me
02/12/2016 11:41Posted by khisana
02/12/2016 11:01Posted by Zenai10
You have a small chance of legendary in 1 pack, your chance increases as you open more of that type of pack.

For example (not accurate numbers)
1% chance ->2nd pack of same type -> 2% chance.
Etc until you get one and it resets.
Where did you get the information that the drop probability for a legendary increases with every pack until you get one? As opposed to staying at the same probability but just giving you a legendary on your 40th pack if you didn't get one before.

as long as you got 1 in 20 as balance it means no diffrence
02/12/2016 11:43Posted by NYARLATHOTEP
02/12/2016 11:41Posted by khisana
Where did you get the information that the drop probability for a legendary increases with every pack until you get one? As opposed to staying at the same probability but just giving you a legendary on your 40th pack if you didn't get one before.


02/12/2016 11:17Posted by NYARLATHOTEP
http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3z7jyh/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_and_the_best_strategy/
Thank you. Very interesting!
Here are my numbers:

U.S.: 4 Legendaries from 83 packs (this includes the 33% compensation packs)
Asia: 2 Legendaries from 48 packs
EU : 3 Legendaries in 65 packs.

That's 9 legendaries in 196 packs. This is almost exactly the droprate from pre-MSoG packs. It looks like Blizzard did not change anything.

I would also like to point out that I bought every single pack with ingame currency and apart from one early promotion card (golden Gelbin Mekkatorque) my account is 100% f2p. The packs I bought and dust I saved allow me to craft 2 legendaries of my choice in each region. I have two copies of most common and many rare cards, meaning I'll get my 40 dust from every pack now. Together with the reward at the end of the month that's almost one more legendary card that I can craft every month, just by doing my daily quests.

And still, when I read the forum, I get the impression people are starving to death, plundered mercilessly by that greedy Blizzard capitalists.
I opened just shy of 40 packs.

I got one legendary... And it was the mayor....

Just awesome...

Oh.. And so far I got only 1 mage card from the entire set...
well I got 3 legendary cards in over 120 packs, last expansion I got 10 in 70 odd packs. Guess I'm paying for last expansions success lol
Opened 65 packs:
73 rares + 4 golden
12 epics + 1 golden
4 legendaries + 1 golden
you should not really expect a rate of 1 legendary per 17 packs. this is way too optimistic. maybe it will be something like that when you open like 1000 packs. but on average you should expect lower numbers.

for example I opened 260+ packs and only got 13 legendaries, and of them 5 were duplicates so in effect I only got 8 legendaries, the rest of them are 400 dust which is 4 times less value than the genuine, non-duplicate legendary.

as you see, with the sample size of 260 packs (which is enough to get full set btw, with 10k dust I had saved, so I won't even buy a single msg pack ever again because I already got all cards) the rate is less than 1 legendary per 20 packs, and if you only count non-repeating legendaries, that's only about 1 new legendary over each 33 packs or so.

and btw pity timer of 40 packs without legendary never even triggered for me so I was relatively lucky.
Also bare in mind that there is a new bug causing there to be an exceptionally high number of duplicate cards with the new expansion packs.
02/12/2016 19:39Posted by Vrak
Also bare in mind that there is a new bug causing there to be an exceptionally high number of duplicate cards with the new expansion packs.

What lie is this? Do you have any official confirmation or you spread misinformation?
I bought 21 packs with gold. Got one golden Kun the Forgotten King. Last time didn't get any legendaries from first 40 packs. :P
Its just ridiculous that you spend so mutch time playing this game and the drop chances of getting good cars are just garbage!

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