pessimistic average dust value of card packs

General Discussion
so we've all seen or heard of statistics that attest an average dust value of 100 per pack. I've tried to calculate a pessimistic average that might be closer to a small sample sized result of pack openings. this pessimistic average is based on always having 4 commons in a pack.

20 average packs then give you 1 legendary, 5 epics, 15 rares and 80 commons, 1500 dust in total or 75 dust per pack.

if we include the chance for golden cards, whose probabilities up until KFT you can find here: https://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics#Golden_cards, we arrive at an average dust of 1813.69 for 20 packs or 90.68 dust per pack.

so the pessimistic average that includes golden cards isn't that far away from the 'general average' number that is flying around everywhere.
Thank you for sharing Khisana and please let me present even more pesimistic calculation.

First of all, when dust calculations started appearing here on forum about 2 years ago, this was still time without legendary duplication rule and there were presented various quite low numbers and I was one of people, who pointed out, that it is really around 100 dust per pack.

Now if I can make really pesimistic approach (kind of like robot Marvin from Hitchikers' guide to the Galaxy) and do some crazy overexaggeration "in a funny way", dust per pack is terribly low. You normally want to keep Legendary and Epic cards, which you get from packs, so there remain for dusting only rare and common cards. If you are terribly unlucky and you get your golden cards in Epic and Legendary form, it has almost no influence on rare and common cards, which you regularly dust. That means, dust value per pack is somewhere around 35. If you are lucky and got 4 commons and 1 rare, you have 40 dust. If you are very unlucky and get 4 commons and 1 golden legendary, you have just mere 20 dust from that pack. That is terrible.

(This post is rare exception from my otherwise mostly serious posts and it is not meant for real.)
thanks for sharing, Motylek!

I feel the need to mention that I did mean my post seriously though ;)

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