Kids ruin competitive!

Competitive Discussion
12/05/2018 21:53Posted by TheExodus
So, basically, the most common case would still be an adult on the other team as well.

Well if you put odds like 1:5 kids:adults then there is a high chance to have an adult on other team. That wasnt the discussion was it? The point was: If you are an adult you have on AVERAGE more adults in your team than kids compared to enemy team. That is counting you. Thats why I said there is constant on your team. You are adult 100% of the time, not swapping between being kid and adult on games.

So do you understand now how kids cant ruin your ranking up?
12/05/2018 22:33Posted by Basso
12/05/2018 21:53Posted by TheExodus
So, basically, the most common case would still be an adult on the other team as well.

Well if you put odds like 1:5 kids:adults then there is a high chance to have an adult on other team. That wasnt the discussion was it? The point was: If you are an adult you have on AVERAGE more adults in your team than kids compared to enemy team. That is counting you. Thats why I said there is constant on your team. You are adult 100% of the time, not swapping between being kid and adult on games.

So do you understand now how kids cant ruin your ranking up?


I understand how you are thinking, but what I'm attempting to illustrate is the fact that over time, as the odds for adults:kids are the same for both teams, the most common combination will be two teams with the same number of kids and adults. And the matches were there is a difference, that difference will go both ways. Sometimes you will be up against six kids, with five of your own (hey daddy) and sometimes you will be up against two adults and four kids. So over time, it doesn't affect your EV at all.

The effect it DOES have though, is increased volatility. Increasing the randomness by throwing a bunch of hyperactive midgets into the mix will make the swings bigger, but that's short term. It will FEEL like it's affecting your EV(SR) negatively, but that's cognitive bias.
12/05/2018 22:33Posted by Basso

So do you understand now how kids cant ruin your ranking up?


Wait, was that a typo? I was of the impression you thought kids DID ruin your SR? Still an interesting discussion, but if you're saying they don't, were atleast in agreement there.
12/05/2018 22:50Posted by TheExodus
I understand how you are thinking, but what I'm attempting to illustrate is the fact that over time, as the odds for adults:kids are the same for both teams, the most common combination will be two teams with the same number of kids and adults. And the matches were there is a difference, that difference will go both ways. Sometimes you will be up against six kids, with five of your own (hey daddy) and sometimes you will be up against two adults and four kids. So over time, it doesn't affect your EV at all.

The effect it DOES have though, is increased volatility. Increasing the randomness by throwing a bunch of hyperactive midgets into the mix will make the swings bigger, but that's short term. It will FEEL like it's affecting your EV(SR) negatively, but that's cognitive bias.

Ofcourse on average. But you are skewing the odds by being adult by 100%. Sure on average there is there is same amount kids:adults on both teams, but that is not true for you depending if you are adult or a kid.

The reason why I took 50% chance is because I could illustrate a coin flip for you. Lets say heads is adult and tails is kid.

If you flip a coin 50000 times you are going to get less tails than when you flip 60000 times on average. Because your team has heads always for the 10000 times without flipping.

If you dont understand this then I dont know how to explain this to you.
12/05/2018 22:53Posted by TheExodus
Wait, was that a typo? I was of the impression you thought kids DID ruin your SR? Still an interesting discussion, but if you're saying they don't, were atleast in agreement there.

I thought it was kinda obvious and wasnt a typo?
12/05/2018 23:07Posted by Basso
12/05/2018 22:50Posted by TheExodus
I understand how you are thinking, but what I'm attempting to illustrate is the fact that over time, as the odds for adults:kids are the same for both teams, the most common combination will be two teams with the same number of kids and adults. And the matches were there is a difference, that difference will go both ways. Sometimes you will be up against six kids, with five of your own (hey daddy) and sometimes you will be up against two adults and four kids. So over time, it doesn't affect your EV at all.

The effect it DOES have though, is increased volatility. Increasing the randomness by throwing a bunch of hyperactive midgets into the mix will make the swings bigger, but that's short term. It will FEEL like it's affecting your EV(SR) negatively, but that's cognitive bias.

Ofcourse on average. But you are skewing the odds by being adult by 100%. Sure on average there is there is same amount kids:adults on both teams, but that is not true for you depending if you are adult or a kid.

The reason why I took 50% chance is because I could illustrate a coin flip for you. Lets say heads is adult and tails is kid.

If you flip a coin 50000 times you are going to get less tails than when you flip 60000 times on average. Because your team has heads always for the 10000 times without flipping.

If you dont understand this then I dont know how to explain this to you.


You're not skewing the odds, unless you are only looking at one particular match. If you are only looking at one match, then you are guaranteed to have a minimum of one adult on your team while the other team are not.

Looking at a single match is completely pointless though, and since you were arguing that the house always wins in the long run, as the math is always right, you apparently were not talking about a single match either.
13/05/2018 00:04Posted by TheExodus
You're not skewing the odds, unless you are only looking at one particular match. If you are only looking at one match, then you are guaranteed to have a minimum of one adult on your team while the other team are not.

Looking at a single match is completely pointless though, and since you were arguing that the house always wins in the long run, as the math is always right, you apparently were not talking about a single match either.

I wasnt. But in long run when talking about individuals games the odds are skewed. Ofc if you take average on everyone not just single person then your right. But as I gave the coin flip example if you didnt understand from that why the odds are on your side I dont know how to explain this.
13/05/2018 00:21Posted by Basso
13/05/2018 00:04Posted by TheExodus
You're not skewing the odds, unless you are only looking at one particular match. If you are only looking at one match, then you are guaranteed to have a minimum of one adult on your team while the other team are not.

Looking at a single match is completely pointless though, and since you were arguing that the house always wins in the long run, as the math is always right, you apparently were not talking about a single match either.

I wasnt. But in long run when talking about individuals games the odds are skewed. Ofc if you take average on everyone not just single person then your right. But as I gave the coin flip example if you didnt understand from that why the odds are on your side I dont know how to explain this.


In your example you fail to account for the times where the opposite team has more than one adults, and when yours do. That pretty much explains our different conclusions, I'd say. Yours seem to be that you're favoured from more kids in the game? While mine is that your EV is unaffected, and only the volatility changes.
13/05/2018 02:12Posted by TheExodus
In your example you fail to account for the times where the opposite team has more than one adults, and when yours do. That pretty much explains our different conclusions, I'd say. Yours seem to be that you're favoured from more kids in the game? While mine is that your EV is unaffected, and only the volatility changes.

I dont understand what that has to do with anything. Sure some times enemy team has less kids than your team. That wasnt the point. Point was on average your team has less kids unless your a kid your self. Same thing goes to anything. Whine about people throwing? Enemy team has more throwers on average unless you throw your self. Some times you get 5 kids on your team and enemy has 6 adults. Idc. Things like that happens. I thought the coin flip was simple enough for anyone to understand. On average the coin flips would go 35000 vs 30000 to your favor. Sure that can some times fail. But the odds are on your side. Its simple as that. I mean gambling for example. Have you ever played roulette? Bet on red and win 2x or black wins 2x. There is like 40 numbers or something and if there wasnt that one green the house would come even in long run . But the one green is going to tilt the odds for the house (I dont remember if its 40 or w/e but lets say its 40. the odds for casino are 21 to 20 no matter if you bet on red or black). Thats pretty small advantage for the house, unlike the coin flip example. Casinos are wealthy enough with small advantages for them and any casino would be happy to take the 35k vs 30k odds any day any time always. Because in the ends they win a lot. Sure they have other means for profits as well, but they still profit on the gambling.

Im not a math teacher or native london speaker. I dont see a point continuing this.
13/05/2018 11:56Posted by Basso
13/05/2018 02:12Posted by TheExodus
In your example you fail to account for the times where the opposite team has more than one adults, and when yours do. That pretty much explains our different conclusions, I'd say. Yours seem to be that you're favoured from more kids in the game? While mine is that your EV is unaffected, and only the volatility changes.

I dont understand what that has to do with anything. Sure some times enemy team has less kids than your team. That wasnt the point. Point was on average your team has less kids unless your a kid your self. Same thing goes to anything. Whine about people throwing? Enemy team has more throwers on average unless you throw your self. Some times you get 5 kids on your team and enemy has 6 adults. Idc. Things like that happens. I thought the coin flip was simple enough for anyone to understand. On average the coin flips would go 35000 vs 30000 to your favor. Sure that can some times fail. But the odds are on your side. Its simple as that. I mean gambling for example. Have you ever played roulette? Bet on red and win 2x or black wins 2x. There is like 40 numbers or something and if there wasnt that one green the house would come even in long run . But the one green is going to tilt the odds for the house (I dont remember if its 40 or w/e but lets say its 40. the odds for casino are 21 to 20 no matter if you bet on red or black). Thats pretty small advantage for the house, unlike the coin flip example. Casinos are wealthy enough with small advantages for them and any casino would be happy to take the 35k vs 30k odds any day any time always. Because in the ends they win a lot. Sure they have other means for profits as well, but they still profit on the gambling.

Im not a math teacher or native london speaker. I dont see a point continuing this.


If the other team has fewer kids than yours, that changes the average, so you are miscalculating it in your example.

Yes, obviously not a math teacher.
13/05/2018 13:20Posted by TheExodus
If the other team has fewer kids than yours, that changes the average, so you are miscalculating it in your example.

Yes, obviously not a math teacher.

Like I said it has next to nothing to do with the outcome.

Why? Because some games the other team has more kids and that pretty much evens it out. It would even it out if it was 6:6 but because it is 5:6 it changes slightly. Lets say enemy team has 6 adults. There is 1000 players in pool and 50% kids and adults. That means you have 494 chances for adults and 500 chances for kids. Thats almost equal to 50%, no where near the 100% you have on your side. But hey you dont get it so you dont get it. You dont seem to understand maths at all. Also you dont count in that one game can be 6 kids on enemy team and then you have 500 adults vs 494 kids so it pretty much evens it out. But hey like said you have no idea how that works and its starting to seem that you dont even want to try to understand. It doesent matter what amounts we are talking about you have always the odds. If 100% of the pool would be kids you would always have less kids in your team and if 0% of the pool would be kids there would never be kids (unless your a kid and you could whine that there is always a kid in your team and never on the enemy team). Anything between 0% and 100% you have less kids in your team if you are an adult and more if you are kid.
One being guaranteed adult while equal distribution on remaining 5 vs enemy teams same distribution for all 6 players will favor the adult player having more adults on average. And by clear margin.

I guess it would require a math teacher that could spell it with apples and oranges, but to me it sounds that someone in this discussion doesn't want to get it.

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