Legendaries and how to get them:

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This post is here to provide advice to other players on how to get a legendary, according to two different GM responses.... So the advice should be the same right? Nope. Apparently Blizzard doesn't understand their own system.

The first blue post is from http://eu.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/17614401625 stating that fail safe is a thing, so you do more content that drops legendary items and the chance increases. Essentially,with each roll of the die you have the less sides the die has the next time you roll it.

The next was in a support ticket where the GM states that "As with all random chances, the only way to increase your probability of having one is to keep trying." comparing them to all other random chances. Essentially the more rolls of the die you have eventually you will hit snake eyes.

Could someone clear this up? There is an issue with this system that needs to be addressed, I have 16 days + played at 110 with 1 legendary, while others have less than 10 with 4 legendaries... This isn't just myself that has the issue. I know several people who have quit because of the fact they couldn't get a legendary while others were on their 3rd or 4th... People can't even use that many.

To sum it up, they want you to play this game, play it until you can't play it anymore, then play some more, and maybe... just maybe if you are lucky enough you might get your first legendary which is worst in slot while your cousin steve has just boosted to 100, levelled to 110 and has his bis legendary as well as another legendary in less than a day.
The first one is the correct one, but even then some people will win the lottery so to speak and others will not.
20/11/2016 20:37Posted by Karzara
The first one is the correct one, but even then some people will win the lottery so to speak and other will not.


So is the response i received in a ticket incorrect? It's a shame blizz employees don't understand the system... thanks for your help mate.
20/11/2016 20:39Posted by Unalaq
It's a shame blizz employees don't understand the system... thanks for your help mate.


GM:s are basically your run of the mill call support workers, ask something the manual doesn't answer and you will get widely differing answers depending on who you talk to.
To me, there's nothing in the second response to directly contradict the first.

One the one hand, the only way to improve your chances (i.e. eventually get one), is to continue pushing forwards. Same as with any random roll, like dice. Assuming a uniform distribution of randomly drawn numbers, your chances would improve for every roll that fails - roughly translating to an equal chance of success with both of your metaphors.
20/11/2016 20:48Posted by Sifuseng
To me, there's nothing in the second response to directly contradict the first.

One the one hand, the only way to improve your chances (i.e. eventually get one), is to continue pushing forwards. Same as with any random roll, like dice. Assuming a uniform distribution of randomly drawn numbers, your chances would improve for every roll that fails - roughly translating to an equal chance of success with both of your metaphors.


I'm sorry but I don't think I've understood that correctly, with every roll that fails, the chance doesn't improve, they stay at (for the dice metaphors sake) 1/6 of you getting that number.

1/6 no legendary ? roll again, 1/6 chance again, the odds do not change just because you missed the mark the first time?

Sorry if I have misunderstood.
This would be nice:

Us to Blizzard: "Is there an actual 'bad luck' mechanic in place that literally increases your chance for every failed attempt, and not just standard number probability?"

Blizzard to us: "Yes there is." or "No there is not."

That's all they really have to do. Just respond with either one of those two lines. It would be SUCH a great help to the ENTIRE community if they would just f***ing come out of the dark and tell us straight up whether there is or isn't.
20/11/2016 21:16Posted by Exhumed
It would be SUCH a great help to the ENTIRE community if they would just f***ing come out of the dark and tell us straight up whether there is or isn't.


http://eu.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/17614401625#post-15

They have.
Excellent, if her word carries authority - and as community manager I would assume it does - then the last part of her response I would say is confirmation that there is an increasing bad luck protection in place.

That's good news.
There sure is a bad luck protection in place, when you inspect every member of your 865 + raid group and everyone of them has a legendary or more, don't you think it's enough of a demonstration that it's in place? As in, the patch notes already said there was bad luck protection, but we can also notice it in game when it's more weird to not get a legendary than get it.

Having said this, the chance to get a 2nd legendary seems lower than first, or maybe it simply means the bad luck protection reset and now is building up again until you reach the same point as before and you get the 2nd.

People are also reporting there may be a huge chance decreased to get a 5th legendary, to the point either you get 2 decent ones in your first 4 or that char is done.
20/11/2016 20:37Posted by Karzara
The first one is the correct one, but even then some people will win the lottery so to speak and others will not.


Correct? According to who? You?

Who TF are you?
20/11/2016 21:46Posted by Oblivivm
Correct? According to who? You?


No, according to Blizzard as the first version is the one delivered by people in high positions and the differing opinion is made by one nameless GM.

20/11/2016 21:46Posted by Oblivivm
Who TF are you?


The one with the ability to read, you might want to acquire said skill before you start acting like an idiot online.
20/11/2016 20:54Posted by Unalaq
20/11/2016 20:48Posted by Sifuseng
To me, there's nothing in the second response to directly contradict the first.

One the one hand, the only way to improve your chances (i.e. eventually get one), is to continue pushing forwards. Same as with any random roll, like dice. Assuming a uniform distribution of randomly drawn numbers, your chances would improve for every roll that fails - roughly translating to an equal chance of success with both of your metaphors.


I'm sorry but I don't think I've understood that correctly, with every roll that fails, the chance doesn't improve, they stay at (for the dice metaphors sake) 1/6 of you getting that number.

1/6 no legendary ? roll again, 1/6 chance again, the odds do not change just because you missed the mark the first time?

Sorry if I have misunderstood.

Nah, I could've explained it better, I think. :P Lemme try

If the numbers are uniformly drawn, you shouldn't see the same roll twice before having seen all the other numbers being drawn. So to get a six on the die you'd roll six times. This isn't a perfect mechanism, but I think this is what Blizzard would seek in their RNG. It's the most "fair" roll, so to speak.

Come to think of it, I slightly missed a detail in my comparison. "Removing" a number from the pool would double the success rate compared to "only" rotating all the numbers in order.

It still doesn't undermine my primary point, though :P My primary point was that both views will eventually give you the drop. The only difference is how fast you'd get it if you were to "empty out" the number of rolls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE0Wr9Hdrdw

The game director said in this interview there is no bad-luck protection, you just get
more chances to get a legendary when you do more legendary-obtainable stuff

37:50
20/11/2016 21:19Posted by Karzara
20/11/2016 21:16Posted by Exhumed
It would be SUCH a great help to the ENTIRE community if they would just f***ing come out of the dark and tell us straight up whether there is or isn't.


http://eu.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/17614401625#post-15

They have.


that answer is not telling me anything.. except that if i keep rolling the dice, i might get lucky
20/11/2016 22:08Posted by Shiftyeyes
20/11/2016 21:19Posted by Karzara
...

http://eu.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/17614401625#post-15

They have.


that answer is not telling me anything.. except that if i keep rolling the dice, i might get lucky

Argh, had to delete my initial response trying to edit to correct myself.

IIRC, the first Q&A Ion did after becoming lead on the game, he said something to the effect of "there is extreme bad luck protection" and stressed that "as with any random draw" it's still inherently random.
Trying to dig up the video but a lot of these don't have scan thumbnails :P
Dajudge said what I was thinking - if there was 'bad luck protection' it would have been clarified when the question came up in the Q&A. The fact the game director scooted around the question screams to me that it was maybe an off the cuff idea at some point and somebody leaked it. They can't confirm it doesn't exist for fear of backlash.

I think there's just a 'chance' at 'roll' the same as any other gear or forging. The more roll chances you create (emissary chests, dungeons) then obviously the more rolls of the dice you get.

It's just funny how people moaned about wanting their first now it's an expectation to have 2 or 3 just because other people got them. The idea is good but the execution is flawed. I think it should have been baked into some sort measurable progress (perhaps class Hall related) rather than being completely random. It would at least remove the speculation. I don't see any reason to try to hold back the players who play more often. Random drops or not those players will always be ahead of the curve regardless of how much you assist more causal players. You can give a causal a legendary but you can't make him raid.
20/11/2016 20:34Posted by Unalaq
comparing them to all other random chances.

It's not comparing, it's just true and fits well with the first gm statement.
You're probably also not very far away from getting one if it isn't much forum/afk time within those 16 days.
20/11/2016 22:03Posted by Dajudge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE0Wr9Hdrdw

The game director said in this interview there is no bad-luck protection, you just get
more chances to get a legendary when you do more legendary-obtainable stuff

37:50


I guess you missed the word "mostly" making that claim about no bad luck protection invalid.

The joke part at 38:35 is about good luck protection, so also saying nothing else than gm nr 1 and 2.

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