The Horseman's Reins

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NO! this aint a bragging thread..

I am curious, was i lucky or was it within the normal # of attempts for this mount?

i got the mount on my #356 attempt
~250 is normal. Neither lucky nor unlucky!
Did it once and didn't get the mount - must be bugged or something.
1000+ and still haven't got it :(
I got mine in TBC. I've had a lot of fun with the flying spooky horse.
27/10/2018 10:16Posted by Shortbolts
1000+ and still haven't got it :(


/Pat
27/10/2018 10:18Posted by Jesi
27/10/2018 10:16Posted by Shortbolts
1000+ and still haven't got it :(


/Pat


Got 11 runs to do today, so let's see if I get it xD
I didn't count how many attempts it was. But was few years doing it everyday for the duration of the event. But only in Legion I've got multiple characters to max level. I've got mine few days ago and was happy I don't have to do this ever again. It gets boring quickly if you do it on 12 characters every day.
27/10/2018 10:22Posted by Shortbolts
Got 11 runs to do today, so let's see if I get it xD

I wish you luck! :)
27/10/2018 10:08Posted by Heymom
NO! this aint a bragging thread..

I am curious, was i lucky or was it within the normal # of attempts for this mount?

i got the mount on my #356 attempt


Let's say it like that : You received your mount within a reasonable amount of time.

One of the worst thing about RNG is that it's never guaranteed. I'm a poor mathematician and it took me some time to understand how this works.

Let's take, for example, Invincible. It has 1% drop chance. Unlike what many people think, this doesn't mean that if you do 100 times ICC, you'll get Invincible. It's not like 1%+1%, then 1%*100=100%, you have it, yay! It's not how RNG works.

It's like that : the mount has 1% chance of dropping, and it's true for every single attempt. About 1% of all people who solo-grind ICC will get Invincible on their first try. They're the most lucky people. But you can do it also hundreds of time, and never get it. It's 1% drop chance on your first try and still 1% on your 1000th try.

Your chance does get up with every other attempt, but it's not how many people think it is. Yes, 1 out of 100 tries will end up with Invincible, but that's just the normal distribution. It could drop on 1st, 15st, 36th, 100th, 250th, 600th, 603th try and so on.

The formula used to calculate your chance to have it is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y ), where x is drop chance and y is number of attempts. Use y to calculate what's your chance to have seen Invincible at least once per your runs.

If you have gotten your 1% drop chance mount before 50th run, you're very, very lucky. On 51th attempt your chance to have seen the favourite mount at least once is just 40.1%.

Your chances get better after 68th try. On 69th attempt your chance to have seen is above 50%, and if you are still struggling, then you're amongst the unlucky.

If you have run the dungeon 100 tries for a 1%-drop chance mount, and still don't have it, don't despair yet. On 100th run your chance to have seen Invincible is just 63.4%. But there's still 36.6% chance never to have seen it at all!

458 is another quite interesting number. This means that if you have done the dungeon/raid that much, you have 99% chance to have seen the mount at least once. And there will be those 1% of people who have tried more than 458 tries and never ever seen their beloved 1%-drop mount. These are amongst the unluckiest. And believe me, I've seen such people on WoWHead....

If you have done 877 times, your drop chance is 99.99%. If you haven't even seen it just once, you've surrendered to the RNG gods forever.

Now... HH has 1 in 200 chance to drop. Unfortunately, I'm amongst the unlucky people. I've ran more than 200 times, and still haven't seen it.

Here's my statistics for mounts.

Lucky (got it soon after starting):

1. Alar - got it after 8th kill
2. Invincible - got it after 20-30 kills.
3. The Pureblood Fire Hawk - 20-30 kills.

The so-so (got it after a long period of grinding)

1. Karazhan Fiery warhorse - This is the first mount I had to grind on 10+ alts for more than a month. Dropped in the end of November. Tried to do it alongside Headless Horseman. Got it long after the event has ended.
2. The fox mount from Suramar. Even though I did almost all emissaries, got it in the end of

The unlucky (never got them).

1. Headless Horseman mount.
2. Zul Gurub panther - still grinding
3. Anzu raven - still grinding on many alts (currently working on this one).

Haven't tried yet:

1. Rivendare.
2. Lodi-dodi-skadi in Northrend.
27/10/2018 11:41Posted by Grodor
27/10/2018 10:08Posted by Heymom
NO! this aint a bragging thread..

I am curious, was i lucky or was it within the normal # of attempts for this mount?

i got the mount on my #356 attempt


Let's say it like that : You received your mount within a reasonable amount of time.

One of the worst thing about RNG is that it's never guaranteed. I'm a poor mathematician and it took me some time to understand how this works.

Let's take, for example, Invincible. It has 1% drop chance. Unlike what many people think, this doesn't mean that if you do 100 times ICC, you'll get Invincible. It's not like 1%+1%, then 1%*100=100%, you have it, yay! It's not how RNG works.

It's like that : the mount has 1% chance of dropping, and it's true for every single attempt. About 1% of all people who solo-grind ICC will get Invincible on their first try. They're the most lucky people. But you can do it also hundreds of time, and never get it. It's 1% drop chance on your first try and still 1% on your 1000th try.

Your chance does get up with every other attempt, but it's not how many people think it is. Yes, 1 out of 100 tries will end up with Invincible, but that's just the normal distribution. It could drop on 1st, 15st, 36th, 100th, 250th, 600th, 603th try and so on.

The formula used to calculate your chance to have it is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y ), where x is drop chance and y is number of attempts. Use y to calculate what's your chance to have seen Invincible at least once per your runs.

If you have gotten your 1% drop chance mount before 50th run, you're very, very lucky. On 51th attempt your chance to have seen the favourite mount at least once is just 40.1%.

Your chances get better after 68th try. On 69th attempt your chance to have seen is above 50%, and if you are still struggling, then you're amongst the unlucky.

If you have run the dungeon 100 tries for a 1%-drop chance mount, and still don't have it, don't despair yet. On 100th run your chance to have seen Invincible is just 63.4%. But there's still 36.6% chance never to have seen it at all!

458 is another quite interesting number. This means that if you have done the dungeon/raid that much, you have 99% chance to have seen the mount at least once. And there will be those 1% of people who have tried more than 458 tries and never ever seen their beloved 1%-drop mount. These are amongst the unluckiest. And believe me, I've seen such people on WoWHead....

If you have done 877 times, your drop chance is 99.99%. If you haven't even seen it just once, you've surrendered to the RNG gods forever.

Now... HH has 1 in 200 chance to drop. Unfortunately, I'm amongst the unlucky people. I've ran more than 200 times, and still haven't seen it.

Here's my statistics for mounts.

Lucky (got it soon after starting):

1. Alar - got it after 8th kill
2. Invincible - got it after 20-30 kills.
3. The Pureblood Fire Hawk - 20-30 kills.

The so-so (got it after a long period of grinding)

1. Karazhan Fiery warhorse - This is the first mount I had to grind on 10+ alts for more than a month. Dropped in the end of November. Tried to do it alongside Headless Horseman. Got it long after the event has ended.
2. The fox mount from Suramar. Even though I did almost all emissaries, got it in the end of

The unlucky (never got them).

1. Headless Horseman mount.
2. Zul Gurub panther - still grinding
3. Anzu raven - still grinding on many alts (currently working on this one).

Haven't tried yet:

1. Rivendare.
2. Lodi-dodi-skadi in Northrend.


As you say, you're a poor mathematician and appear not to understand % chance.
On your first run the % chance is 1%
On your second run the % chance is 1%
….
On your 10,000th run the % chance is 1%

The % drop rate doesn't change after each run, it's like tossing a coin, the chance of the coin landing heads up is always 50% no matter how many times you toss the coin.
27/10/2018 11:58Posted by Pointybeard
As you say, you're a poor mathematician and appear not to understand % chance.
On your first run the % chance is 1%
On your second run the % chance is 1%
….
On your 10,000th run the % chance is 1%


I already said that it's 1% each single try and doesn't add up. Did you read the whole post? But the chance does go up and you can use the formula to calculate the chance to have seen it at least once per number of attempts, which I've done.
27/10/2018 12:16Posted by Grodor
27/10/2018 11:58Posted by Pointybeard
As you say, you're a poor mathematician and appear not to understand % chance.
On your first run the % chance is 1%
On your second run the % chance is 1%
….
On your 10,000th run the % chance is 1%


I already said that it's 1% each single try and doesn't add up. Did you read the whole post? But the chance does go up and you can use the formula to calculate the chance to have seen it at least once per number of attempts, which I've done.


The chance does NOT go up at all, it remains constant irrespective of how many attempts you make. You're making the false assumption that the chance, or % changes depending on any previous attempts which it doesn't.
Thats not bragging. I can show you bragging but it would trigger everyone.

I know it took my friends around 400-425 attempts among them to get their mount.
27/10/2018 12:37Posted by Incinder
Thats not bragging. I can show you bragging but it would trigger everyone.

I know it took my friends around 400-425 attempts among them to get their mount.


Here's bragging :P
First Cache I ever opened in Legion was Nightfallen, got the carpet mount.
First Kings Rest run I did on my DH, got that mount.
Second run for raven lord and I got that mount.
First killing of all rares in Arathi and got Lil'donkey and the highlanders mount :P
Total random tbh, it’s dropped twice for me, yet my friend hasn’t seen a sniff of it.
No clue what number of attempts i was on as i don't really bother with counting them every year, when i run dungeon/event for a mount either i get it or not no reason to count.

But got the Horseman mount this year on the 20th and as the event started on the 18th and i did it on 7 chars guess i got it on my 18-21th Attempt ( this year )
27/10/2018 12:32Posted by Pointybeard
The chance does NOT go up at all, it remains constant irrespective of how many attempts you make. You're making the false assumption that the chance, or % changes depending on any previous attempts which it doesn't


I am not. Every time you're doing the mount, you're rolling a 100 (or in case of HH - 200) - sided dice. You're hoping the dice to show 1. The chance to roll 1 is the same every time you throw the dice. It doesn't go up.

However, you're also grinding the mount on 12 different alts. This means you're playing with 12 dices. This is because you're hoping at least one of the dices to show you the desired result - 1. And your chance increases with the number of the dices.
I dont get why ppl want this mount so badly :P Its just an ugly horse... Warlocks have the same mount by default. You can buy a WAY cooler mounts from AH for 2-10k gold.
Crap mount got it in like 2008. Looks bad.

The best thing is his head.

I suppose back in 2008 it was good since glowy feet tho

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