The Horseman's Reins

General
Ive no idea how many attempts, all I know is Ive been doing the dung once a day for a good few years. It just dropped for me this morning :-) not ashamed to admit I squeeled like a little girl lol.
27/10/2018 20:05Posted by Tymaar
I, myself stand at around 370~ or so attempts for HH. I could see myself going to 400+ and that's being really unlucky. But again, I find it highly improbable that someone would go 1,000 attempts on this mount given the statistical data.


Well, weirdly enough, Since the first time it hit WoD I've been doing it on 11 toons from the get go. It's on for 2 weeks, so that's 14 days. 14x11 is 152. 152x4=608. Since WoD, I've ran it 608 times (Give or take). Before that, I ran it from Cata onwards, on 8 different toons, so we'll say that's about 300-400 times.

So, I'm pretty dang close to 1k runs and still haven't got it. Each run does not increase your chances of getting it. It's the same chance every time you enter, no matter what. So, with bad luck (Like I have), it IS possible to run it 1k+ times and not get the mount.
Guys, we have three more days. Plus Thursday morning, if we have the chance to play before the event is gone :D
I've saw 3 of them drop, 2 before account wide mounts were a thing and i have one in my warriors bank.

I think with rare mounts like this, there isn't really an average number of runs, Its just whether you're lucky or not.
27/10/2018 10:16Posted by Megatokyo
I got mine in TBC. I've had a lot of fun with the flying spooky horse.


Same. I believe the drop rate was higher back then as i got it in my 3rd or 4th time in TBC
I've run it a few times in previous expansions but never actually farmed it. This year I decided to do it. It dropped after 25 tries.
I got it I think maybe 20th run or something about 5 years ago. never seen it drop since lol
27/10/2018 11:41Posted by Grodor
27/10/2018 10:08Posted by Heymom
NO! this aint a bragging thread..

I am curious, was i lucky or was it within the normal # of attempts for this mount?

i got the mount on my #356 attempt


Let's say it like that : You received your mount within a reasonable amount of time.

One of the worst thing about RNG is that it's never guaranteed. I'm a poor mathematician and it took me some time to understand how this works.

Let's take, for example, Invincible. It has 1% drop chance. Unlike what many people think, this doesn't mean that if you do 100 times ICC, you'll get Invincible. It's not like 1%+1%, then 1%*100=100%, you have it, yay! It's not how RNG works.

It's like that : the mount has 1% chance of dropping, and it's true for every single attempt. About 1% of all people who solo-grind ICC will get Invincible on their first try. They're the most lucky people. But you can do it also hundreds of time, and never get it. It's 1% drop chance on your first try and still 1% on your 1000th try.

Your chance does get up with every other attempt, but it's not how many people think it is. Yes, 1 out of 100 tries will end up with Invincible, but that's just the normal distribution. It could drop on 1st, 15st, 36th, 100th, 250th, 600th, 603th try and so on.

The formula used to calculate your chance to have it is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y ), where x is drop chance and y is number of attempts. Use y to calculate what's your chance to have seen Invincible at least once per your runs.

If you have gotten your 1% drop chance mount before 50th run, you're very, very lucky. On 51th attempt your chance to have seen the favourite mount at least once is just 40.1%.

Your chances get better after 68th try. On 69th attempt your chance to have seen is above 50%, and if you are still struggling, then you're amongst the unlucky.

If you have run the dungeon 100 tries for a 1%-drop chance mount, and still don't have it, don't despair yet. On 100th run your chance to have seen Invincible is just 63.4%. But there's still 36.6% chance never to have seen it at all!

458 is another quite interesting number. This means that if you have done the dungeon/raid that much, you have 99% chance to have seen the mount at least once. And there will be those 1% of people who have tried more than 458 tries and never ever seen their beloved 1%-drop mount. These are amongst the unluckiest. And believe me, I've seen such people on WoWHead....

If you have done 877 times, your drop chance is 99.99%. If you haven't even seen it just once, you've surrendered to the RNG gods forever.

Now... HH has 1 in 200 chance to drop. Unfortunately, I'm amongst the unlucky people. I've ran more than 200 times, and still haven't seen it.

Here's my statistics for mounts.

Lucky (got it soon after starting):

1. Alar - got it after 8th kill
2. Invincible - got it after 20-30 kills.
3. The Pureblood Fire Hawk - 20-30 kills.

The so-so (got it after a long period of grinding)

1. Karazhan Fiery warhorse - This is the first mount I had to grind on 10+ alts for more than a month. Dropped in the end of November. Tried to do it alongside Headless Horseman. Got it long after the event has ended.
2. The fox mount from Suramar. Even though I did almost all emissaries, got it in the end of

The unlucky (never got them).

1. Headless Horseman mount.
2. Zul Gurub panther - still grinding
3. Anzu raven - still grinding on many alts (currently working on this one).

Haven't tried yet:

1. Rivendare.
2. Lodi-dodi-skadi in Northrend.


All this to understand that 1% means 1% every run?

...

Lol.
28/10/2018 10:02Posted by Shortbolts
it IS possible to run it 1k+ times and not get the mount


Possible, but highly unlikely, the majority will get it a lot quicker than 1,000 runs. I'd say only a very small fraction of people would have to do it 1,000 times. So if you do reach that, you are very unlucky.

As for Invincible, the drop rate being slightly higher at 1:100 (going by stats on data from wowhead and wowdb) I'd find it even more unlikely someone would go 1,000 without seeing a single drop. They'd be extremely unlucky.

It could happen, but only to a very very very very small portion of people.

As I estimated for HH, I got on the first run yesterday at 388 attempts. I was pretty much stoked, so I wish you good luck.
28/10/2018 07:43Posted by Grodor
28/10/2018 01:14Posted by Sulaa
You have no idea what a true and proper mount collector and grinds are.
Im sorry but you really are whiney and entilited.
You are from what i read an adult so deal with it and move on you child to be should be taking your time no whiney ill informed posts on the forum


So, instead of discussing what I wrote about RNG (I spent 15 minutes writing this for FREE), so people can appreciate my work, you are offending me?

REPORTED.
gz you wasted 15 min, because the % chance of any mount drop does not go up no matter how many times you run anything, the chance will always be 0.5% or 1% even at number 1000 run.

Also .. "I spent 15 minutes writing this for FREE" you .. really think anyone would pay you to write that?
Got it yesterday on my attempt number #18
28/10/2018 14:36Posted by Xakura
Also .. "I spent 15 minutes writing this for FREE" you .. really think anyone would pay you to write that


No. But I expect acknowledgement, as all people do.

In the end, there are only two kinds of people - those who appreciate what I do, and those who don't.

I prefer to read feedback only from the first group. Feedback from the second group is welcome only if it's politely written, and it's discussing the points I wrote, not personal attacks. As for the offensive comments - I will report every single one of them.
28/10/2018 07:43Posted by Grodor
28/10/2018 01:14Posted by Sulaa
You have no idea what a true and proper mount collector and grinds are.
Im sorry but you really are whiney and entilited.
You are from what i read an adult so deal with it and move on you child to be should be taking your time no whiney ill informed posts on the forum


So, instead of discussing what I wrote about RNG (I spent 15 minutes writing this for FREE), so people can appreciate my work, you are offending me?

REPORTED.


Reported for what exactly ? please explain you offered no solid maths no facts or figures and your collection is laughable to say the less 175 mounts and you claim to be hardcore and grinded so long...

Your free claim ? you expect anyone to paye for your bad information that has no weight to it at all ?

You say you have "grinded" when the numbers you have said is far from grinding .
I know collectors on 3000+ kills for Sha 6000+ kills for strat mount 10k+ kills for Timewalking mount .

The numbers you are saying are just whines and you are far from an adult that i hope and expected for if you report for post like mine infact i hope you suffer a forum vacation for wasting there time as my posts are well within the guild lines .

I have not cursed at you or anything i just said how it is you are whining and entilitied and misinformed.
27/10/2018 19:46Posted by Pointybeard
(die is the plural of dice, not dices)


Congrats, you triggered me. Die is the singular, dice is the plural.
28/10/2018 21:47Posted by Sulaa
Reported for what exactly ? please explain you offered no solid maths no facts or figures and your collection is laughable to say the less 175 mounts and you claim to be hardcore and grinded so long...

Your free claim ? you expect anyone to paye for your bad information that has no weight to it at all ?

You say you have "grinded" when the numbers you have said is far from grinding .
I know collectors on 3000+ kills for Sha 6000+ kills for strat mount 10k+ kills for Timewalking mount .

The numbers you are saying are just whines and you are far from an adult that i hope and expected for if you report for post like mine infact i hope you suffer a forum vacation for wasting there time as my posts are well within the guild lines .


Several points:

1. Learn about how to use punctuation marks in your sentences. They're incomprehensible.

2. Wishing me to "suffer" a forum vacation shows that you're immature yourself.

3. You say that your posts are well within the guild lines. Well, I don't know what your guild is (and I hope I'll never be in the same guild with you :D ), but I reported you for this one ( source: https://eu.battle.net/forums/en/code-of-conduct/#trolling ), namely :

Causing disturbances in forum threads, such as picking fights, making off topic posts that ruin the thread, insulting other posters
28/10/2018 21:47Posted by Sulaa
Reported for what exactly ? please explain you offered no solid maths no facts or figures and your collection is laughable to say the less 175 mounts and you claim to be hardcore and grinded so long...

Your free claim ? you expect anyone to paye for your bad information that has no weight to it at all ?

You say you have "grinded" when the numbers you have said is far from grinding .
I know collectors on 3000+ kills for Sha 6000+ kills for strat mount 10k+ kills for Timewalking mount .

The numbers you are saying are just whines and you are far from an adult that i hope and expected for if you report for post like mine infact i hope you suffer a forum vacation for wasting there time as my posts are well within the guild lines .


Several points:

1. Learn about how to use punctuation marks in your sentences. They're incomprehensible.

2. Wishing me to "suffer" a forum vacation shows that you're immature yourself.

3. You say that your posts are well within the guild lines. Well, I don't know what your guild is (and I hope I'll never be in the same guild with you :D ), but I reported you for this one ( source: https://eu.battle.net/forums/en/code-of-conduct/#trolling ), namely :

[quote]Causing disturbances in forum threads, such as picking fights, making off topic posts that ruin the thread, insulting other posters


Are you that type of person who thinks whiney and entilitald are insults ?
I feel sorry for you if so easily offended and im far from trolling you i have stated my views your numbers are off by miles.
I will never be in the same guild as you as we are on completely different servers.
Do you actually understand this game at all and are you an adult ?
And you do know not everyone first langague is English yes ?
What a person you are grow up springs to mind and get tougher stop being so easily offended.

Also might want to work on your maths its way off.
I never thought it was very rare, used to have three before they made mounts account wide.

The reason I like it is that it flies without wings, so no annoying flapping.
28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
i have stated my views your numbers are off by miles


Until you show why these numbers are off "by miles", then your views are just, well, views. In this thread we were talking about statistics and mathematics. If my math is incorrect, then show it to me. Bashing on the poster and calling him "entitled" and "whiny" doesn't disprove the math, even if it is wrong.

28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
Do you actually understand this game at all


Well, somehow I hit max level. At least I understand it enough to click some buttons and level up.

28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
are you an adult


I am an adult. This, however, doesn't mean I don't have certain goals and dreams about the game. And I'm passionate about this.

28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
And you do know not everyone first langague is English yes ?


I know. English isn't my first language as well. But at least I try to use punctuation marks. My English may not be the best, but I'm trying to make my communication as fluent as possible.

28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
What a person you are grow up springs to mind and get tougher stop being so easily offended


Why don't you stop offending the others, then the problem won't exist.

28/10/2018 22:19Posted by Sulaa
Also might want to work on your maths its way off


Again: stop with ad-hominem arguments and show me why my math is wrong. I'm here to learn.
458 is another quite interesting number. This means that if you have done the dungeon/raid that much, you have 99% chance to have seen the mount at least once. And there will be those 1% of people who have tried more than 458 tries and never ever seen their beloved 1%-drop mount. These are amongst the unluckiest. And believe me, I've seen such people on WoWHead....

If you have done 877 times, your drop chance is 99.99%. If you haven't even seen it just once, you've surrendered to the RNG gods forever.


This here is where you are wrong. Every time you join a dungeon, you have 1% of a drop. Doesn't matter how many times you go into that dungeon, that's ALWAYS 1%, never get's higher, never get's lower. Never changes, no matter how many you run. That's how it works.

Let's say you try to fish for a mount at 2%. Each time you cast your line, you have 2%. You can fish 1000 times, it's still 2%. It never changes.
28/10/2018 22:35Posted by Shortbolts
458 is another quite interesting number. This means that if you have done the dungeon/raid that much, you have 99% chance to have seen the mount at least once. And there will be those 1% of people who have tried more than 458 tries and never ever seen their beloved 1%-drop mount. These are amongst the unluckiest. And believe me, I've seen such people on WoWHead....

If you have done 877 times, your drop chance is 99.99%. If you haven't even seen it just once, you've surrendered to the RNG gods forever.


This here is where you are wrong. Every time you join a dungeon, you have 1% of a drop. Doesn't matter how many times you go into that dungeon, that's ALWAYS 1%, never get's higher, never get's lower. Never changes, no matter how many you run. That's how it works.

Let's say you try to fish for a mount at 2%. Each time you cast your line, you have 2%. You can fish 1000 times, it's still 2%. It never changes.


Thank you Shorts for explaining better then i could its always 1% chance no matter what :)

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