How many subs has wow lost?

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10/11/2018 21:36Posted by Juliuscesar
It just shows that you are god awful at the game and don't even understand why and how absolutely terrible the change actually is.

Do elaborate how preference translates to being bad? Otherwise keep staying salty.
@All: About a month ago in an older thread I developed a method of forcing a certain absolute minimum possible type of number for the combined US+EU population using data from public sources... About a week ago that result looked like this:

There are currently about 1 701 000+ players playing primarily on levels 111 to 120.
There are currently about 121 600+ active Legion account players who are capped at 110.
There are currently more than 67 000 players primarily levelling up an allied race at level 109 or below.
There are currently more than 38 500 players levelling up an older alliance character at level 109 or below.
There are currently more than 30 000 players levelling up an older horde character at level 109 or below.

And as of today, the same values, calculated the same way look like this:

There are currently about 1 604 500+ players playing primarily on levels 111 to 120.
There are currently about 101 000+ active Legion account players who are capped at 110.
There are currently more than 65 000 players primarily levelling up an allied race at level 109 or below.
There are currently more than 35 000 players levelling up an older alliance character at level 109 or below.
There are currently more than 27 000 players levelling up an older horde character at level 109 or below.

Please note that all indicated values are minimums, because to eliminate errors caused by very active players such as myself, I have rounded all values downwards and where faction specific data was not available, modified using Sporeggar, which has the lowest known population as a template. For the previous calculation, such modification was required for 39 factions, for the latest for 34 factions.

There is no known way outside Blizzard of reliably determining the actual levels, because there simply is not enough public data available. Additional note: A far more accurate calculation would require the amount of public data to multiply roughly by a factor in excess of four for the low activity periods or in another format... There would have to be a minimum of over 3 200 additional data entries consisting of a minimum of 122 (based on current Sporeggar data) individual active characters each and every single day between 01:00 and 08:59 on top of what the sources hold right now. That is a pretty tall order for only about 200 to 300 people scattered all over the globe, especially since we, too, need to sleep at times. :D

However, as you can see from the figures above and as I noted in that older thread, the leaked figure of 1,7 million world wide total was obviously fake. The US+EU minimum possible figure alone still easily exceeds that. Toss in Russia, Taiwan, Korea and China and the actual count goes up even more.
Any one can do stats and come up with different methods of calculation you are to be commended for your efforts. The latest MAU from Blizzard itself shows that the numbers are not going up but downward spiral sorry to say.

The latest projection for the fourth quarter for the Blizzard division is around 33 to 34 million MAU. This is using a staple calculation on the fourth quarter with no new growth. Even the most die hard fan must conclude that if the numbers are accurate across the Blizzard division. The WOW game itself will have taken a big hit.

The MAU remember now is across all the blizzard games Hearthstone and Over watch account for a large number of those. The figures have been announced on the blizzard quarterly last week.
10/11/2018 10:29Posted by Brutal
From where I'm sitting it seems the game is a hollow husk of what it used to be.

Well according to Blizzard management their developers don't play PC much and their best devs has been moved to mobile platform, so that's probably is the result of it.
From my point of view that official Blizzard statement sound like this: 'You are not our valued customer, be happy we don't outsource your game. Yet.'
I wonder how remaining WoW devs feel about that statement too, cause well, they at very least aren't evaluated as best by their management.
I'm not going to QQ on forums that I will cancel my sub and delete the game, it's just silly with my sub expiring in January, but I am looking for the alternatives - the companies that don't say that they moved their best devs to the mobile projects. It's all about customer respect and priorities.
@Mortheria: I need badly to get some sleep, but I am going type a question and a thought so I do not forget them.

Question: Do you happen to know how Blizzard exactly defines one MAU? I use myself as an example... I played at least WoW, Hearthstone and Diable III (at least once a month during July, August and September), did I add one MAU, 3 or perhaps 9 to Q3 figures?

Thought: With patch 8.1 incoming, with projected date of December 11th, the activity levels will change at least a little upwards for at least a brief period.
10/11/2018 12:10Posted by Brutal
10/11/2018 11:11Posted by Raiden
It s Sunday boys..!!

it s time for one of those WOW is dead post..

since TBC btw.


You clearly didn't read the post and completely missed the point. But I would expect no better from somebody who doesn't even know which day of the week it is.


You are a bit confused, huh, boy?
10/11/2018 10:29Posted by Brutal
I'm not saying the game IS dying


ofc it's not dying, what's already dead can't die.

because wow at this point is pretty much fkn dead.
11/11/2018 00:55Posted by Trelw
Question: Do you happen to know how Blizzard exactly defines one MAU?

"Monthly Active User (“MAU”) Definition: We monitor MAUs as a key measure of the overall size of our user base. MAUs are the number of individuals who accessed a particular game in a given month. We calculate average MAUs in a period by adding the total number of MAUs in each of the months in a given period and dividing that total by the number of months in the period. An individual who accesses two of our games would be counted as two users. In addition, due to technical limitations, for Activision and King, an individual who accesses the same game on two platforms or devices in the relevant period would be counted as two users. For Blizzard, an individual who accesses the same game on two platforms or devices in the relevant period would generally be counted as a single user."

https://investor.activision.com/current-reports
11/11/2018 00:55Posted by Trelw
Question: Do you happen to know how Blizzard exactly defines one MAU?

"Monthly Active User (“MAU”) Definition: We monitor MAUs as a key measure of the overall size of our user base. MAUs are the number of individuals who accessed a particular game in a given month. We calculate average MAUs in a period by adding the total number of MAUs in each of the months in a given period and dividing that total by the number of months in the period. An individual who accesses two of our games would be counted as two users. In addition, due to technical limitations, for Activision and King, an individual who accesses the same game on two platforms or devices in the relevant period would be counted as two users. For Blizzard, an individual who accesses the same game on two platforms or devices in the relevant period would generally be counted as a single user."

https://investor.activision.com/current-reports


So 9 then?
@Jito: Thank you for that! So the answer would be three (3 x 3 / 3). Hmmm. It also means we actually can NOT determine how many players were present, because one MAU could represent one, two OR three players.
10/11/2018 10:34Posted by Orlen
it's not a metric but it's been noticed by those we go with, We have a small community of people that join up and do raids and pug the rest of those we need and the pickings have been getting more and more slim every single week.


I've noticed this, I think it mainly due to people having done it / got geared up and cba to do it again.
It definitely feels at an all-time low. Most of my friends don't log on anymore and out of 108 BTag friends, I see around 5-10 online on WoW at peak times each day, which is sad...

10/11/2018 10:45Posted by Bandicoot
Guilds have problem with recruitment...and if this continue... less guilds...

Well, if Blizzard ever removed LFR and/or made classes & specs fun and interesting like they were in MoP before the pruning and GCD changes, I'd join a raiding guild.
I would say its about 1-2 million active subs. None of my IRL friends play anymore, my guild is dead, friend list dead. It takes 40 mins to get a dungeon group and 16 mins to get a bg group.

Even if you want to come back and enjoy wow, you cant because wow is a community based game and with no community there is no game, just like there is no game without community.
People saying in the comments that it's because of the game's age, it's not. Not at all. Don't be so foolish.

It's the fact that the game isn't being designed like how it used to be; Passion, heart, originality and creativity isn't Activision Blizzard's intention now with their products like WoW, it's all about how long they can drag out subscription times and time gate content in order to maximise profits. I don't have to tell you how out of touch they are with the actual community because anybody with half a brain already knows this.

Steve Jobs said it best about companies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AxZofbMGpM
11/11/2018 09:11Posted by Kattwilliams
People saying in the comments that it's because of the game's age, it's not. Not at all. Don't be so foolish.

It's the fact that the game isn't being designed like how it used to be; Passion, heart, originality and creativity isn't Activision Blizzard's intention now with their products like WoW, it's all about how long they can drag out subscription times and time gate content in order to maximise profits.

That's silly.

If age didn't matter and the only reason why the playerbase is declining is because Blizzard makes bad design decisions, then a game like Diablo II or StarCraft should still be sitting on playerbases that amount to millions upon millions of people, because those games haven't had any changes since their "peak".

But they don't.

If age didn't matter, then I'd still be content playing Super Mario Bros. on my NES today. But I'm not, because I played it plenty when I was a kid. There's an inherent desire as a gamer to move on and try new games.
It is no different with WoW.
Well don't know but their stock keeps going down but that's mostly because of they're destiny and diablo immortal outrages but wow is still probably one of the games that has a good income
11/11/2018 10:08Posted by Zieera
Well don't know but their stock keeps going down but that's mostly because of they're destiny and diablo immortal outrages but wow is still probably one of the games that has a good income


I dont know man. All Guilds im on are now more empty than the content droughts of Legion, chat is dead, World is dead even when no flying is enabled, friend list is dead, everyone i know IRL who played in Legion quit the game, everyone talks down to Blizzard as much as they talk down to EA.

And the latest "many of our best devs are working on mobilegame titles" made me really want to delete my battle.net app.

Everywhere i go, i see no positive thing about Blizzard anymore. They are the same level as EA, everyone is talking down at them now. I dont think their reputition can be repaired now.
11/11/2018 01:01Posted by Drekhan
10/11/2018 12:10Posted by Brutal
...

You clearly didn't read the post and completely missed the point. But I would expect no better from somebody who doesn't even know which day of the week it is.


You are a bit confused, huh, boy?


Is that you posting from an alt? Or just another idiot white knighting someone else's stupidity?

Yes I am slightly confused by two things.

1. How can somebody be so stupid they don't even know which day it is? Just how is it possible?

2. Why do you kids think that calling other people kids is such a great insult? Do you hate yourselves that much?

On topic: I did manage to find some groups yesterday (which was of course Saturday, not Sunday) for world pvp, but that was during peak hours and the groups never got that big. I think the group at it's biggest only reached 26 players, when in the past groups like that could have filled several raids, and in the past those groups were usually made from a single server instead the whole of Europe.

It is sad to see it is not only me who has noticed the decline in players, and that it is starting to have a big impact on the game for those that are left. Maybe it is worse at the moment because we are between content, but I can't remember it ever being this bad.

I guess I'll concentrate on getting buff again at the gym. I got out of shape playing wow too much after a back injury. In the last 4 and a half weeks I have lost 9% body fat and increased my maximum bench press by 25kg and my working bench press by 20kg. I just took a week off because doing that in such a short time has taken its toll on my rotator cuff. I didn't play at all during those weeks I was at the gym, and on coming back there seems to be less people playing.

I will still try for my bloodthirsty title, but then I think it's time for me to do other things again. I hope the game picks up again for those that are left.

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