Traditionally, trinkets and similar proc effects in the game had high proc chances with an internal cooldown (ICD). This made the procs random in theory, but really pretty predictable. You would know that a trinket would proc on the pull and then reliably every 45 sec (or whatever the ICD was).
For 5.2, we made a change to trinkets to make them less predictable and less boring with the RPPM system. Sometimes you can get lucky and get several back to back procs. This feels cool. Sometimes you can also be unlucky, and get long streaks when the trinket just refuses to proc. A trinket that is intended to proc every 1 minute could in theory go 8 minutes or more without activating.
Last night we hotfixed in a change for trinkets that use the RPPM system. Every time your trinket fails to proc, it increases the chance it will proc. Unlucky streaks will be more rare and extremely unlucky streaks should never happen. In addition, we increased the chance for these trinkets to proc on the pull. To top it off, we increased the proc rates of the Agility and Strength trinkets in Throne of Thunder by 10% and the Intellect and Spirit trinkets by 5%.
Painfully detailed explanation for theorycrafting:
As usual, you absolutely do not need to know or understand the following in order to use or best take advantage of these procs. This info is just for theorycrafters who want to understand the exact details of the system, so that they can model and simulate it better.
Calculate the proc frequency as normal. Based on that, you can figure out the expected average proc interval. We also now keep track of time since the last successful proc (this is different from the time since last chance to proc), capped at 1000 sec. Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and it’s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, you’ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If you’ve been out of combat for a few min, and it’s been 5 min since your last successful proc, you’ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance.
We increased the proc rate of the following trinkets by 10%:
- Renataki’s Soul Charm
- Talisman of Bloodlust
- Bad Juju
- Rune of Re-Origination
- Fabled Feather of Ji-Kun
- Primordius’ Talisman of Rage
- Spark of Zandalar
- Gaze of the Twins
We increased the proc rate of the following trinkets by 5%:
- Wushoolay’s Final Choice
- Breath of the Hydra
- Unerring Vision of Lei-Shen
- Cha-Ye's Essence of Brilliance
- Horridon's Last Gasp
- Inscribed Bag of Hydra-Spawn
- Stolen Relic of Zuldazar
- Lightning-Imbued Chalice
Unerring Vision of Lei-Shen now has 65% of the normal proc rate for Balance Druids, up from 50%.
However I am a bit disappointed because there are still a few important issues with it that I believe could have been easily avoided :
- The time-between-procs probability distribution will still have high variance (this change only dampens the long tail of the distribution, it does not remove the relatively high chance to proc right away)
- Unless you're adding some normalization constant you did not mention in the equation, the average time-between-procs is not 60s / (RPPM_rate * (1 + haste)) anymore. This also makes it unclear what you mean by "AverageProcInterval" in your formula !
- The 1000s cap seems excessive, this means if you really want to maximize your chances of proccing your trinket right away at pull you need to wait for ~17 minutes ! If you want to keep that high a cap, I would advise to cap the TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc when entering combat, i.e. do TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc = max(TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc, T) where T is a reasonable value (less than 3-5 minutes at least). However 0.5 RPPM trinkets will not proc right away at pull for sure even if you wait long then !
I had investigated the issue myslef and came up with another solution very close to this one, except it does remove the high chance of immediate proc, resulting in a somewhat centered gaussian-ish probability distribution for the time-between-procs.
It is basically done by making the instant probability a ramp (this new system is constant then ramp) :
P = TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc * TimeSinceYourLastChanceToProc * Constant
With a normalization constant ensuring that the average time-between-procs is 60 / (RPPM_rate * (1 + haste))
Full analysis : http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1273546-Why-RPPM-trinkets-feel-too-random-and-an-alternate-design-proposition
I cannot post images but I will link to a few probability distributions once I get the math done about this !
I cannot post on the US forums, but I really hope some of the guys on teh development team that worked on this system will read this and maybe even respond / address these concerns !
Fabled Feather of Ji-Kun
Do you mind fixing the proc rate of this one, it still seems a bit buggy if you ask me, unpredictable as well. Why would I want it to proc like 4 times in a row, in less than 1:30 minutes, and then not to proc for 5 minutes !?
Also would you be able to make it proc right at the start of fight, just to line up with the rest of cooldowns, the other trinkets / weapon enchants seem to do so, so I am wondering, why wouldn't this one be the same, or well close to it?
Blue response would be amazing :)
13/03/2013 19:20Posted by Surutcra[li]The 1000s cap seems excessive, this means if you really want to maximize your chances of proccing your trinket right away at pull you need to wait for ~17 minutes
So what is the multiplier for 17 minutes? You'll need a trinket with ~1-2% proc chance to even benefit from that considering waiting for 5 minutes gave a 16.5x proc chance (which will only benefit you if you have a trinket with a 6% proc chance). And as you know, most trinkets have about a 10-30% proc chance.
You don't need to wait 17 minutes, there is no reason to, you're just fooling yourself with getting a 500% proc chance.
13/03/2013 16:34Posted by XarishflarFor 5.2, we made a change to trinkets to make them less predictable and less boring with the RPPM system. Sometimes you can get lucky and get several back to back procs. This feels cool.
Random and completely unpredictable procs do not feel interesting, they do not make me feel lucky and they certainly do not make me feel cool. They make me feel like I have to pray the blasted thing procs more than once in a few minutes. I want my skill as a player to get me through a fight, not luck in the form of trinket procs.
If you want players to rely on luck for increased numbers, then you have to make the game less demanding on numbers. You can't do one without the other. It just doesn't work.
You removed the essence of timing and lining up things together, you may think that seems boring - but that as a DPS were a thing to keep track of aswell, instead of just mindlessly mashing your keyboard - you got the proc, oh wait the pull and burn phase is already over, just waste that very needed proc.
If you want the game to rely so much on having the numbers required, its silly to take the tool away for us to properly minmax our dps.
I looted the 522 Talisman of blood lust after the so called fix.
It does not ever stack above 4 and rarely ever reaches 3 stacks of haste, 1 stack is typical before it drops off.
I was really happy for a little while now i am using my darkmoon relic once again.
Please address this GM`s Its hard enough getting loot and to find out it`s junk when you do is demoralizing.
Please put trinkets back the way they were, we have small damage windows and waiting for a proc that doesnt happen is pants.
Alternativley please add some ICD trinkets to the loot table.
Here is why it happens: At the pull, your ICD trinket (Shado-pan, DMF, Elegon) will almost certainly proc. When it does, you pop your cds. They line up and you pull high dps which, even though it erodes later in the encounter, will equal a high average. If your second trinket is an ICD trinket, it will proc on the pull, with your 1st trinket, with your cds, and increase surge in dps. It erodes but because they all line up, it's the most efficient DPS gain overall. Now, imagine like most people you're prepotting, this increases the gap. Is it a Hero/BL at start fight? If yes, bigger gap. I appreciate the attempt to make procs on the pull for RPPM trinkets more likely, but unless they're as guaranteed as ICD trinkets, they won't be competitive. This is the biggest issue with the RPPM system for me. If you want what happens concerning trinket procs during the rest of the fight to be random, so be it, but the pull should be predicitable.
I understand this is a new system and some might argue "If you don't like the RPPM system, equip a different trinket". But this brings me to a side-issue which is connected to the new trinkets:
We have 2 trinket slots. The only ICD based 522 Trinket is the VP one. If you want to intentionally disregard the RPPM trinkets you are forced to go DMF trinket or head back to Elegon Heroic. What is wrong with this is that people are no longer able to upgrade the item level on those trinkets.
Therefore, people who were not lucky enough to see their Elegon trinket drop (yes I used extra roll every week) do not have access to the upgraded version of that trinket, which would be a valid alternative to the new RPPM trinkets.
Constructive synopsis of all this waffle: Please please either introduce an additional ICD trinket to the loot tables of trash, bosses or to the VP vendors. Or make the proc chance of the RPPM trinkets on the pull as guaranteed as the ICD trinkets.
Thanks for your time.
This change sounds like total bull!@#$ nerf
So, that is basically an empty slot until they 'fix' it.
In a 10 minute test fight, it procced once after 2 minutes then again at 10 minutes.
Might go back to my relic until it's a bit more balanced :/